Diesel Prices Stabilize After January Surge

After volatile January pricing, diesel has found support around $3.40/gallon nationwide. Here's what truckers should expect for Q1.

After a volatile January that saw diesel prices spike to $3.75/gallon in some regions, the national average has stabilized around $3.40/gallon as of early February 2026.

Current Pricing Landscape

The DOE reports the current national average at $3.42/gallon, down from the January peak but still elevated compared to last year's Q1 average of $3.18.

Regional variations:

• West Coast: $3.85-4.10/gallon
• Northeast: $3.55-3.70/gallon
• Midwest: $3.25-3.45/gallon
• Gulf Coast: $3.15-3.35/gallon
• Southeast: $3.30-3.50/gallon

What's Driving Prices

Several factors are contributing to the current price environment:

1. Refinery maintenance season starting earlier than usual
2. Cold weather increasing heating oil demand
3. Geopolitical tensions keeping crude oil elevated
4. Strong freight demand from post-holiday restocking

Impact on Your Cost Per Mile

At $3.42/gallon with average fuel economy of 6.5 MPG, your fuel cost per mile is approximately $0.53/mile. This compares to:

• January 2026 peak: $0.58/mile
• February 2025: $0.49/mile

Strategies for Managing Fuel Costs

1. Route optimization - Even small detours for cheaper fuel can save $50-100 per fill-up
2. Fuel card discounts - Stack discounts from fuel networks, typically $0.05-0.15/gallon savings
3. Speed management - Every MPH over 65 decreases fuel economy by 0.1 MPG
4. Idle reduction - Idling burns 0.8-1.0 gallons per hour

Outlook for Q1 2026

Analysts expect prices to remain in the $3.30-$3.55 range through March, with potential volatility around refinery maintenance schedules.

Bottom line: Build $0.53-0.55/mile into your cost calculations for now, with room for adjustment as Q1 unfolds.